Enough with the Silly League. What’s going to happen in the Real Baseball League this year? (That’s right, where pitchers hit and hitters … also hit.) One thing I’m always annoyed by with preseason rankings is how they invariably follow the previous year’s order. Basically, baseball experts usually expect this year to look like last year. I’m not immune to that, but I think the NL will show more turnover than the AL this year. Also annoying? How they took Opening Day away from the Reds. I remember growing up what a big deal was made out of the fact that the Cincinnati Reds were the oldest and most venerable of all franchises, and thus deserved to have their game start before anyone else’s in the afternoon. Then ESPN moved it to the evening on Sunday. Then they decided the Yankees and Red Sox were more venerable. Gag me. The Yankees used to play in Baltimore. The Reds veritably invented professional baseball. This AL bias is killing me. Anyway, onward:
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
– Same thing that happened last year, huh? Okay, well, the Phillies are just a monster of a franchise right now, though I believe this is the beginning of the twilight of their era. (Which makes Cole Hamels the era’s Bella, I believe.) The NL East belonged to the Braves for so long, it’s easy to forget it’s every bit as difficult to compete in — financially speaking — as the vaunted AL East, especially now that Montreal has presto chango’d into Washington, D.C. Roy Halladay was indeed a coup, and the pitching will probably be this franchise’s dominant weapon as it crumbles back to Earth, which is quite a contrast from its rise to power on batting. It seems that this is a typical trajectory, actually: team finds success with overwhelming offense, wins pennants with a good balance, continues to visit the playoffs thanks to good pitching, signs an overly expensive free agent, then enters either a death spiral or a quick two-year rebuild phase depending on market size. Someone should do a study on that. Anyway, the Phillies. Polanco and Ibanez are the only two soft spots in the lineup, and even they were financial steals so one can’t fault the Phils for running them out there. Bullpen? Yep, the final standing on the podium all comes down to bullpen. Enjoy the playoffs, Philadelphia. I don’t think the pennant is yours this time.
Atlanta Braves
– Here come the Tomahawks. I think Nate McClouth was one of the stealthiest offseason acquisitions in all of baseball (right up there with Harden) in terms of actual roster improvement, and if the hype about Heyward-Jablome is real, this could be an actual monster lineup, give or take a first baseman. If the Phillies weren’t so damn hard to bet against on paper, I would be bolder and predict a darkhorse run for the division from Atlanta. As it is, they’ll make it hard for the West to claim the Wild Card spot again, which will only add flavor to the fantastic race shaping up out there. The bullpen is probably better looking on paper than on the field, but what’s a Braves team without an immensely talented closer with inexplicable weaknesses? That tradition dates back to Mark Wohlers, maybe even further. Here’s hoping Billy Wagner doesn’t come out the racist closet like some other Brave Souls from the past. Oh, and I hate everything about Chipper Jones: he reminds me of Matt Damon, he’s a sort of copycat Todd Helton (depending on where you stand on chickens and eggs), and he still rocks chin fuzz like it’s time to put Limp Bizkit on the jukebox.
New York Mets
– The way the Mets get dogged in the media, you’d think they were the Knicks and not an occasionally successful franchise with superstar players and more money than Frank McCourt’s divorce attorney. Yes, they tend to overpay for theoretically marquee talent, and yes, they seem suspiciously susceptible to injuries (the way Tony LaRussa teams seem suspiciously susceptible to post-career Congressional hearings), but this is a damn strong lineup. Johan Santana is still an ace to be reckoned with, David Wright and Jason Bay are big leaguers in the Wheaties sense of the word, and I’m not entirely sold that Francisco Rodriguez is a mirage. That said, there are holes, including the continued insistence that Carlos Beltran will someday be healthy and/or amazing. When I saw Gary Matthews’ headshot in the depth chart, I could have sworn they signed his dad, so he might be past whatever mediocre prime he had. And the rest of the starting lineup has names that are bigger than they should be, with ERAs to match. Still, a .500 team is not a Knicksian disaster, New York. You would have thought the, er, Knicks would have shown you the difference by now.
Florida Marlins
– Let’s hear it for the boys in teal! Another year, another season of storied baseball in one of the majors’ most fanatic markets. I can already hear the turnstiles spinning for what promises to be a lineup of legends. There’s no way the tremendous talents of Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson will go unappreciated in this mecca by the sea, the House That Gary Sheffield Built. I can already picture the television cutaways to longtime Marlin devotees scratching their inimitable notations on old fashioned scorecards as Fredi Gonzalez brings out another fresh, breathtaking talent from the bullpen. I can hear the murmured water cooler conversations in office buildings across Miami the day after the entire city plays hookie for the home opener, discussing the potential of Cameron Maybin to win a batting title someday, or the workmanlike pinch hitting of Emilio Bonifacio. Yes, baseball in America means baseball in South Florida, no doubt about it. It’s traditions like this — not to mention two World Championships in every fan’s living memory — that make baseball the national pasttime. I know I’ll be tuning in when they visit Wrigley Field, if only to see how many rabid Florida fans show up in full black-and-teal gear to drown out the apathetic dregs of Cubs Nation.
Washington Nationals
– For a second, during the first pitch of the first game of the Washingtonian’s season, I had hope. Hope that this year would be different. Hope that the red-white-and-blue-of-arbitrary-importance would turn the corner to see a new day. A new dawn. A new America. Then I realized it was just a ceremonial pitch by Barack Obama, and that even he would rather be on the South Side of Chicago than anywhere near what passes for baseball in the nation’s capital. I mean, this is a team that actually signed Willy Taveras. On purpose! Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Kennedy and Adam Dunn look like they’re ready to take on any competition in a beer pong tournament, but that’s about where the intimidation factor ends. Yep, Strasbourg. But this ain’t hockey. You can’t Ovechkin your way out of misery via a good draft pick in baseball. (See: Kansas City.) You need a front office that knows what it’s doing, and that’s not equated to a front office that believes Ivan Rodriguez will put them over the hump. Enjoy that stadium, D.C. Sure, you probably wanted better public school funding or more cops instead, but watching the Nationals is a safe way to become educated in the lessons of failure. And there’s a 50/50 chance that Congress will decide the franchise is too big to fail and give the fans a bailout.
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers
— They’re going to have to make some in-season trades to make this work, but the Brew Crew has what it takes to unseat St. Louis. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun can stare down Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday without blinking. That rotation is sneaky good, without any obvious 20-game winner or Cy Young candidate, but more longevity and less injury risk than the one in red down the Mississippi. Also, never underestimate a franchise’s desire to perform during its 40th anniversary season. (Wait, or was that always underestimate? Baseball can be so confusing with all these numbers.) I think Carlos Gomez was a great pickup, and hopefully Jim Edmonds won’t eat up too much playing time — then again, considering how they deployed Jason Kendall almost every night, you can’t trust the Brewers. Still, as I’m about to explain, if the season is a very long sixth-inning sausage race, St. Louis is more like to trip and fall than Milwaukee. Division clinched.
St. Louis Cardinals
— For all the kudos Dave Duncan gets, nobody ever mentions how alarmingly frequent it is for a Cardinals season to be derailed by pitching injury. Whatever magic he works, it seemingly comes at a price. (And if he’s that magical, why is Rick Ankiel now an outfielder with the Royals? Black magic?) Last year, things more or less held together. This year, I predict doom for at least one starter. The lineup, once you get past the PB&J of awesome that is Pujols-Holliday, is filled with players like Colby Rasmus and Skip Schumaker. In other words, scrubs. I think the Cards know what they’re doing, and thus will win more series than they lose, but this recent dominance of the Central is a mirage built on the coconut tree of the Greatest Hitter of the 21st Century So Far (suck it, ARod and Barretired Bonds). The Central is too weak this year for St. Louis to do any worse than second place. The Brewers are probably too good for them to do any better.
Cincinnati Reds
— I can’t really explain this pick other than a gut feeling that the Reds have to surface above .500, if only for a season, before sinking back into the quagmire of bad ownership. That’s a really nice pitching staff, too nice to be worse than the bottom-feeders lurking below (sorry, Cubs). And that’s all I have to say about the Queen City. Hunches are hard to write about.
Chicago Cubs
— New owners! A healthy Derrek Lee! A decent payroll! What could possibly go wrong? Well, I think Zambrano is finished as a top-tier pitching threat, Carlos Silva ain’t never going to walk just 8 batters all season again, Soriano is old enough to remember playing with both Jeter and ARod before they were on the same team, Geovany Soto is such a tease that high school boys don’t think he’s worth the effort to ask to prom, Fukudome is just a funny name now, and the middle infield is riddled with French Canadians. The last time the Cubs relied on Montreal for offense, Andre Dawson was a force in the league. In fact, I think the Cubs need to do a full rebuild pretty soon here. To put a pessimistic turn on sportdom’s most optimistic phrase, if you think the Cubs are disappointing this season, just wait till next year.
Pittsburgh Pirates
— The Pirates will probably be baseball’s only happy fifth-place team, just because of the alignment quirk that gives them someone to look down on for once. In fact, until we eradicate the DH, put the Brewers back in the AL and shift Kansas City to the AL West, this will always be an overcrowded and underwhelming division. (I know some people will suggest that we could also go full interleague if the NL adopts the DH, but those people ride broomsticks every full moon.) It’s a long slow ride to the middle of the pack, but something tells me the Pirates are finally on board that train. It certainly isn’t the lineup, which isn’t much more inspiring than Washington’s. Still, there’s always that fact that…
Houston Astros
— … Houston is worse. Somewhere in Springfield, Nelson Muntz is pointing his finger at this team and saying “HA ha.” They’re deceptively bad, in the sense that some of the players were pretty darn good in 2007. Sadly, it’s 2010. Sorry Pedro Feliz, Kaz Matsui, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. HA ha, indeed.
NL West
Colorado Rockies
— Time to deploy the royal We. It’s finally time to declare the Rockies one of baseball’s elite, and for once, I’m not the only one who thinks so. Much has been made of the entirely homegrown lineup (aside from Carlos Gonzalez, who came via awesome trade and not free agent splurge), and it does appear that the front office knows what it’s doing for once. Tulo’s locked up. Helton will retire a Rockie and, given a ring, probably be the first franchise Hall of Fame inductee. The pitching is solid from top to bottom. Sure, we’re starting the season with Francis and Street in the hospital, but they’ll both be back in plenty of time to run away with the division and make noise in the playoffs. This is the kind of team that, in the words of cliche becrutched television announcers, finds a way to win, simply because at least two players have the tools to produce runs or prevent them in any given game. I won’t say the Rockies are streak-proof, if only in deference to the recent history of outlandish streakiness, but we’re certainly flop-proof. I’m saddened that Jason Giambi is on the team, because I can’t abide cheaters and I thought we got rid of the last one when Holliday got shipped out. (Calling it here: Matt will be the last major leaguer to be tarnished by the recent steroid era.) I adore all that outfield depth, and while it will be nerve-wracking to watch Morales “close” games for a month or two, I don’t think the bullpen is the glaring question mark so many national pubs do. Look out National League. This team is for real.
Los Angeles Dodgers
— It’s curious so many preseason write-ups have fretted about the ownership divorce. I get the sense that people think somehow a confuzzled purse string will hold this team back in 2010 like it’s kryptonite. That can only be true if they need to add pieces during the season. And if they need to add pieces during the season … well, what’s wrong with the Dodgers right now? They seem all right on paper. Solid offense, decent age of core players, the usual assortment of solid starters, a fireballing closer, Joe Torre, tradition, Alyssa Milano…. I know, something’s still missing, right? Missing the playoffs, that is! It will be a pleasure to watch this team fall short of 90 wins this year, and hear everyone making excuses as to why.
San Francisco Giants
— They shouldn’t be any good. If Lincecum gets hurt, the pitching is merely above average. If Pablo Sandoval gets hurt, the offense is dreadful. But there’s a greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts makeup to this team that should keep it around .500. I think the Giants beat teams that suck, and lose to teams that are good. That will make for an angst-ridden Bay Area this season, because everyone thinks the Giants are destined for greatness every year instead of being what they really are as a franchise: Boston, pre-2004. I’m actually impressed nobody’s come up with a curse yet to explain the championship drought since 1954. I suppose we could blame it on Barry (Bonds, not Zito, though people do have fun blaming Zito.) Me, I think it’s the curse of Brian Sabean, who knows how to write contracts and develop pitchers but can’t trade to save his life.
Arizona Dickbacks
— I give them fourth place because even I can see how awful San Diego is, and I do make an effort to be reasonable in these predictions. I fail to explain everything that’s wrong with them because I just hate the Diamondbacks as a rival. They don’t have Eric Byrnes to kick around anymore, which is too bad. He was fun to mock. They do have Stephen “The Fourth DiMaggio” Drew and Justin Uptonopotential. They also have some good starters. They also have a losing season.
San Diego Padres
— I’m too tired to make fun of the Padres tonight. Let’s just say there comes a time in every young man’s life when he learns that the presence of David Eckstein on a roster is the sign of a team going in the wrong direction. Tony Gwynn Jr. is a bad-ass, though. Cute of the Friars to sign him. Can’t wait to see who they’re forced to trade him to when he gets good and wants to play for a real team. The Cubs, maybe?
NL Playoffs
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves (Colorado in 4)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Philadelphia in 3)
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Colorado in 5 — and is this starting to look like a rivalry or what?)
World Series
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers (Colorado in 4, huzzah!)
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