I think this will finally be the year when the Colorado Rockies are a powerhouse and not a Cinderella. I think the Texas Rangers will shake off some organizational accursedness to win a pennant. And I think I should probably trash this entry instead of publishing it, because my predictions are always wrong and I’m probably jinxing it all just by typing. Nonetheless, here’s my notoriously untrustworthy outlook for the 2010 Major League Baseball season:
AL East
New York Yankees
– Time to put the Wild Cards away and stick the pinstripes back on top. The weakness in the Bronx these past few years has been pitching, and I think that weakness has been sewn up. Sure, the Yankees are old enough to be a Daylight Savings Time change away from Hall Of Fame Legends, but for once they don’t seem to be banking on an injury-free season. Having Joba Chamberlain back up Mariano Rivera takes away that “will the cutter still work?” worry. Randy Winn isn’t exactly a big bopper, but he can provide far-above-replacement level at any outfield position. Is Brett Gardner really that good? Probably not as good as the New York media will make him out to be, but like most fresh Yankee faces, probably better than anyone playing on the Royals. I think CC Sabathia will come back to form for one more season and contend for a Cy Young Award. I think having the World Series monkey off A-Rod’s back (not to mention another year between him and the S-word) will help him put out one final monster year before the decline (he’s 35 this year!). And I think the AL East is in what passes for a re-grouping year in that monster of a division. When in doubt, give the Yankees the crown.
Boston Red Sox
– Picking the Yanks and Sox to finish 1-2? What balls! Yeah, well, money can buy you love in baseball, and the Red Sox still have plenty of cash out in the field. While the Beaneaters still have all-pro players manning most positions, I think there are some roster slots given over to uncharacteristically questionable veterans, like Boston has turned into the Tigers or Angels or something. Beltre at 3rd? Scutaro at short? Mike Cameron in center? JD Drew, still? I also think the trio of Varitek, Victor Martinez and Big Papi is a wobbly three-legged stool. Like the Yankees, the Sox are kinda old. Unlike the Yankees, their roster isn’t 80% bound for Cooperstown. The pitching is beyond solid, but one can also say that about the Undeviled Rays. I would say their staff gives them a division title anywhere else but the AL East. As it stands, it’s just another Wild Card year in Boston.
Tampa Bay Rays
– I actually think this is a close call between the Rays and Boston. Give or take a few injuries, the Rays could either nab a Wild Card or finish .500. Certainly after 2008, nobody doubts the talent that’s been assembled, and if I were building a franchise tonight, I’d take that pitching rotation over any other, including San Francisco’s. Tampa Bay’s problem comes down to a tale of two Carls. I don’t believe Carlos Pena is really that awesome, and I don’t think Carl Crawford is as valuable a baseball player as his fantasy stats make him seem. Pena’s batted ball stats point to an escalating fly ball rate (at the expense of line drives and grounders), which means he’s getting completely reliant on home runs. If he loses a bit of timing/strength/eyesight/willpower/whatever, he might turn into an out machine, which is basically what he was prior to 2007 when he only got a whiff of .800 OPS figures. Now, every prediction engine out there has him continuing along at a pace of .245/.365/.890, so I guess I’m just having a hunch that he’ll decline at 32. But it’s my hunch and I’m sticking to it. As for Crawford, his very nice 2009 still rubs me the wrong way after his very not nice 2008. The tools are there, but the consistency?
Baltimore Orioles
– Their youth propels them out of the cellar. What puzzles me is the corner infield tandem of Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins. Tejada is simple old and in decline, though it’s interesting that his K rate has dropped so much that if he remembers how to walk (something he apparently forgot how to do after 2007), he could become an OBP machine. Atkins was the ultimate rally-killer in Colorado, showing perpetual unclutchiness with negative WPA two years running. That said, his abysmal 2009 was part of a stupendously unlucky .246 BABIP. A rebound to .300ish numbers there and he can be an RBI guy. Put a good season from those two together, and you’ve got a real offense, depending on how the youth movement lives up to the hype. The pitching, particularly the bullpen, is a great unknown, so there’s no profit in predicting a run for the pennant, but the Orioles could surprise this year. That said, this franchise has felt like an AL counterpart to the Reds for an entire decade: nice parts on paper, but always missing too many ingredients to climb past .500.
Toronto Blue Jays
– What’s the Canadian word for “rebuild”? And remember when John McDonald was the best fielder since Ozzie Smith? And who are these guys again? The Jays could swap their entire roster with the Nationals, and I don’t think anyone aside from the IRS would notice. I’m not one of those baseball fans who watches the minor leagues with drooling anticipation of what’s to come, so I’ll need a year just to familiarize myself with this roster before I even pretend to know what this team’s about. Luckily, in the AL East, a field of unknowns virtually guarantees fifth place. Just ask the Rays. It took them two years in a row of Sports Illustrated covers in March before they had enough star power to compete. Also, I have a theory that before Vince Carter departed from the Raptors, he transferred a bit of his DNA into Vernon Wells so that Toronto could continue to feel tortured by a player who struts around with a fat paycheck based on distant memories of predictions of greatness. (Maybe they should trade Wells to Orlando?)
AL Central
Minnesota Twins
— Sure, they lost a closer to start the season, but the AL Central isn’t exactly a rumble in the jungle. The most potent starting pitching is a toss-up between the Twins and the White Sox, depending on health, and the most potent lineup is a toss-up between the Twins and the Tigers, depending on who has fewer fluke down years. Since the Twins get to be in both toss-ups, they’ll get to survive the home stretch and see the playoffs. The one great wrinkle of unknown is the new Target Field. Minnesota has a storied tradition of riding the Metrodome to unfair homefield advantage. If the Big Bullseye turns out to be an offense-suppressing beast like San Diego’s nasty Petco surprise, or simply levels the playing field and allows Central rivals to feel more at home, this could erase an important edge that’s pumped this franchise to the top in so many years when the competition went limp. We’ll see. I predict a close finish with…
Detroit Tigers
— Say what? You thought I’d say White Sox, didn’t you? Well, every year something fluky seems to happen in this division (hell, even the Royals went .500 sometime last decade), and I think this is Detroit’s year to have a statistically unlikely run of excellent starting pitching. The White Sox have already seen it happen twice. Detroit’s offense might be less than thundering (Johnny Damon is now just a lowercase “i” idiot and Adam Everitt might as well bat with his glove on, he’s such a fielding-first player), but again, the Central is a mess of uneven teams trying to compete with the cohesive Twins. And Detroit’s always allowed precisely one decent sports franchise at a time. Why not the Tigers?
Chicago White Sox
— After years of hearing national sports commentators backhand my beloved Rockies by implying that any offensive purple prowess is due solely to the ballpark and the altitude, I finally get to turn the tables. Jake Peavy looked like the second coming of Bob Lemon while playing in the most pitching-friendly ballpark of the modern era in a division that was rebuilding offenses across the board in a league where the pitchers bat ninth. I don’t think he’ll pull a full Zito flop, but I do think Peavy will look entirely human, and all those predictions of a lights-out rotation on the South Side might crumble by June. Also, Mark Teahen. Also, Juan Pierre. Sorry, Chicago. This team has mediocrity written all over it.
Kansas City Royals
— Huh? Look, I’m predicting fourth place by a sliver. I think the Royals will continue to smell bad, just not last place bad in 2010. Any team with Zack Grienke in the rotation is going to avoid long losing streaks, and as much as I denigrated Chicago’s lineup for being mediocre, Kansas City’s is similarly mediocre … and that’s an improvement for the boys in the blue. A lot could go wrong. Alex Gordon could turn out to be in rehab the rest of his career. Rick Ankiel might need to be sent down to A-ball to learn how to catch or whatever it is he hasn’t tried doing from scratch yet. Jason Kendall could get more than 100 at bats (*shudder*). Grienke could get hurt. But I don’t think it hurts my childhood favorites to get a bit of a karma bump from this blog this year. C’mon, KC, let me hear you chant it! We’re Number Four! We’re Number Four!
Cleveland Indians
— Will the Indians trade LeBron to New York? Look, the team isn’t that hopeless. They’re still substantially the same team they were a few years ago, when they were awesome, plus or minus a handful of Cy Young Award winners and a young power-hitting catcher. What I’m most curious about this year — and I fully admit it’s for fantasy baseball reasons alone — is whether or not Travis Hafner is another Pat Burrell (not nearly as good as he’s supposed to be) or another Juan Gonzalez (he’s suddenly good again … must have been injured). Baseball Reference says he’s another Dolph Camilli. Don’t worry, I didn’t know who the hell that was, either.
AL West
Texas Rangers
— Ah, the wild west. I love this division, because every year it seems so unpredictable, and every year either the Angels or the A’s win it depending on which franchise is firing on all cylinders at the time. Well, this year, I think the Rangers will actually-really-for-sure-despite-a-coke-snorting-manager-I-mean-it win the division. And, as a bonus, I think they’ll win a playoff series. Actually, two. Actually, I think the Rangers will win the pennant. Here’s why. The starting rotation is solid. Rich Harden is a beast, and he’ll return to form in the AL. Michael Young and Ian Kinsler are, at this moment in time, better all-around players than ARod and Jeter. Vlad Guerrero is perfectly cast in the role of “that one veteran who never got to play in the World Series and finally gets to with his new team.” Any player you can point a finger at who’s under the age of 25 is awesome. And, as a special bonus, the division is stealthily good, but not nearly as good as Texas. Which means the Rangers will be battle hardened and likely to face off against the two AL East teams in the playoffs (Wild Card, then whoever kicks the crap out of the Central winner). That thing the Angels did in 2003? I see the Rangers doing it in 2010. Congratulations, Texas. It’s a long overdue shot at a title. Of course, you’ll lose, but I’ll get to that in a dozen more team recaps or so.
Seattle Mariners
— There’s not much separation between the remaining AL West teams, so it’s tough to call the order here. I think Seattle’s the steadiest team, so they seem most likely to hit number two. Then again, any team with Milton Bradley on the roster, now matter how old and fat and jolly Griffey Jr. is, can’t be 100% steady. King Felix is a little overrated as an ace, but Chone Figgins is still a little underrated as a hitter. (All his comparables are ancient 19th century players with names like “Ducky,” so you know he’s a unique player who’s tough for modern commentators and viewers to evaluate.) But really, what this team has always needed is someone to knock home runs behind Ichiro. If Bradley can keep his sanity long enough to do that, they should win a lot of games.
Oakland Athletics
— I like Ben Sheets. I know he’s been hurt a lot and never lived up to the Cy Young promise he had when the Brewers gave him all their sweet, sweet Selig money, but I like him. What’s more, Billy Beane likes him, and success vs. non-success aside, Beane is one GM who knows when to fold ‘em and knows when to hold ‘em when it comes to starting pitchers. (He gave Harden up under a contract gun.) All those things people believe Jake Peavy will be for Chicago? I think Sheets will be that for Oakland. I also like Daric Barton. I like the cut of Rajai Davis’s jib. I like Kouzmanoff’s underrated overratedness. And I like how the official team site puts Ryan Sweeney at the top of the depth chart in both center and right. (Man, that guy covers a lot of ground!) Sure, this isn’t a very good team, but it’s not a very bad team, either. Let’s say 76 wins.
Los Angeles Angels of Orange County
— Remember how much I like Ben Sheets? That’s how much I dislike the Angels. I think they’re a smug organization and I think their rally monkey sucks dick. I can’t explain my antipathy; it’s just there. Oh, wait, I can explain my antipathy. They think Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui are both still power hitters. (Um, sure, if you think 18 homers equals power.) They think their starting pitching is the shit. (Jered Weaver, I hope that great 2006 year keeps getting you laid and paid, because you ain’t been ace since.) They think Torii Hunter is a great fielding player. (We ought to rename Web Gems the Wool Gems, for what they pull over the eyes of general managers.) (And also, while I’m using parenthesis too much, can I say that people who “prove” that UZR is a bad stat because Torii Hunter has a bad UZR are … making the counter-clockwise circular argument to say the least.) Anyway, my hatred of Los Angeles de Los Angeles is completely irrational, and this isn’t a bad team by any stretch. They would contend in the Central. But they’re the worst of a mildly mediocre trio in the West, and that might plant them in the cellar for a year. Shrug it off Angels fans … if you exist out there.
AL Playoffs
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox (Texas in 5)
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins (New York in 4)
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees (Texas in 7)
National League tomorrow…
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